Anthropic's plan to go public at a $1.5 trillion valuation — potentially the largest stock market debut in history — is running into resistance from the very investors it needs. Three major investors planning to take part in the offering believe the artificial intelligence company will have to cut its valuation, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, with one suggesting a figure closer to $1 trillion. The pushback lands days before Anthropic was expected to start marketing the deal, and it turns what was shaping up as a crowning moment for the AI boom into a negotiation over price — and over whether the industry's enormous spending can be justified.
The valuation fight
According to the Journal, the three investors — all intending to participate in the offering — believe the proposed $1.5 trillion valuation will probably need to come down. One put the company's worth closer to $1 trillion, roughly $500 billion below earlier expectations. The company may also have to settle for a smaller fundraising target: the Journal reported Anthropic could seek around $80 billion rather than the previously anticipated $100 billion.
Reuters, reporting separately on Thursday, found the same hesitation from its own sources. Prospective investors are questioning whether Anthropic can begin its roadshow next week and stay on track for a November listing, four people familiar with investor discussions told Reuters, with some viewing the recently discussed $1.5 trillion valuation as being at the high end of expectations. Anthropic had been aiming to list in the week before Thanksgiving — the week of November 16 — and a $100 billion raise would make it the largest initial public offering on record.
Nothing about the deal is final. The final valuation, the offering size and the listing date all remain undecided, according to the reports, and the investor views come from unnamed people familiar with the matter. Anthropic did not immediately respond to a request for comment from AFP. Until the company publishes an official price range, every figure in circulation is an estimate from people who want to buy.
Why the mood changed
The resistance follows a sharp selloff in technology stocks. Companies in the Nasdaq Composite lost a combined $2.5 trillion in market value on Thursday, November 5, according to the Journal, and the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF fell 6.2% in the same session. Investors who had viewed Anthropic as a must-own name are becoming more cautious as enthusiasm around the sector weakens.
Politics has added to the unease. Democratic victories in the US midterm elections have raised concerns about potential resistance to new data-centre developments, with newly elected Democratic governors in states including Texas, Georgia and Ohio seen as possible obstacles to construction. Analysts at Jefferies cut their forecast for new data-centre capacity in 2030 by approximately 8% in a research note on Thursday. That matters considerably for Anthropic, whose business depends on securing enough computing capacity to train and operate its Claude models — and whose own prospectus acknowledges that political or financial developments restricting data-centre capacity could pose a risk.
| When | What investors were expecting | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Late May 2026 | $965 billion valuation in a private funding round | Euronews |
| Months ago | Talk of a debut near $2 trillion | Reuters; Business Standard |
| Mid-October 2026 | Talk shifts to about $1.5 trillion | Reuters |
| November 6, 2026 | Major investors suggest $1 trillion to $1.25 trillion; $80 billion raise instead of $100 billion | Wall Street Journal; Reuters |
The $895 billion question
Beyond the market backdrop, investors are scrutinising what Anthropic has promised to spend. Its amended S-1 filing revealed commitments of approximately $895.4 billion towards AI computing power, chips and other infrastructure needed to develop and operate its models — nearly $900 billion in short- and long-term supply commitments in total.
Michael Burry, the investor known for his bets against the US housing market before the 2008 financial crisis, highlighted the figure in a Substack post on Wednesday and said he had reservations about participating in the offering. Burry argued the commitments could be difficult to justify even if the company achieves the revenue growth optimistic investors expect, noting that bullish investors expect revenue of around $100 billion in the coming year — a figure still far below the long-term infrastructure commitments.
"Not only is the company priced for optimism, it is betting its entire existence on that optimism."
— Michael Burry, in a Substack post on Wednesday, on Anthropic's computing commitments
Burry also raised concerns about take-or-pay agreements with major cloud providers, under which Anthropic could be required to pay for computing capacity even when it does not need it — an arrangement that could increase operating costs and weaken its competitiveness against other AI developers. "I have no plans to pursue shares of Anthropic, and I do not expect to be a shareholder anytime soon," he wrote. His position marks a shift: in April he had described Anthropic as "eating Palantir's lunch".
What the filing actually shows
The numbers investors are weighing cut both ways. Anthropic's amended S-1 filing showed revenue reached $17 billion in the third quarter, and its revenue run rate — a measure used to estimate annual revenue based on current performance — exceeded $80 billion at the end of October, according to the Journal. The company's October revenue figure was left blank in its updated filing, making it another important number for investors to assess before committing.
According to the prospectus, Anthropic held $146.6 billion in cash and other liquid assets. But meeting nearly $900 billion in supply commitments will require substantial financial resources, and postponing the IPO would temporarily prevent it from raising additional capital through the public markets. The potential fundraising target of $80 billion to $100 billion would provide additional financial flexibility as it competes in an increasingly capital-intensive industry — though, as several analysts noted, investors are unlikely to support the offering simply because the company needs the money.
All of the figures in this article come from company filings as reported by the press, or from unnamed investors speaking to reporters. Anthropic has not confirmed a valuation, a price range, a share count, a ticker or a final listing date, and none of the outlets cited here confirms a delay or a cancellation. Treat every number as reported, not official.
Why Anthropic still wants to list
Not everyone expects the turbulence to derail the deal. Malik Ahmed Khan, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, wrote in a research note on Thursday: "We don't expect any near-term impact on the IPO," adding that concerns around data-centre development could become an interesting dynamic to watch over the next couple of years.
Others argue a lower price could help rather than hurt. Max Kettner of HSBC, who recently reduced his equity rating from maximum overweight to neutral, told Bloomberg News that "the real risk clearing event is probably the Anthropic IPO in two weeks, if it happens," and suggested a valuation closer to $1 trillion could be more acceptable to investors than $1.5 trillion — provided the shares do not fall sharply in their first week. "You come with a reasonably low valuation, such that in the secondary market you actually start rallying. Or at least not dumping 20-30% in the first week — because that obviously would be horrible," he said.
Jim Lebenthal, chief market strategist at Cerity Partners, said in a Barron's report that Anthropic could reconsider its plans if the market environment prevents it from achieving an attractive valuation, and had previously argued it could instead raise capital in private markets if the public-market valuation fell too far. That leaves the company with three paths: accept a lower valuation, delay the listing, or stay private for longer.
Frequently asked questions
When will Anthropic go public?
The roadshow — the round of presentations to funds that comes before pricing — was initially expected to begin during the week of November 9, with pricing anticipated the following week, Reuters previously reported. The listing itself had been targeted for the week before Thanksgiving. Those plans are now under investor scrutiny, and none of the dates has been confirmed by the company.
How big would the IPO be?
Anthropic had been expected to raise up to $100 billion, which would make it the largest IPO on record. Reports this week suggest the raise could instead be around $80 billion, with the final valuation still undecided. The shares would trade on the Nasdaq, according to the reports.
Why is a $1.5 trillion valuation contested?
Two reasons, compounding. First, a sharp selloff in AI stocks has cut the multiples investors are willing to pay. Second, Anthropic's filing commits it to roughly $895 billion in computing spending, and some investors — most prominently Michael Burry — argue that bill is hard to justify against even optimistic revenue forecasts.
What happens if the valuation is cut?
A lower valuation would mean raising less capital, but it could also produce a stronger market debut, since shares priced modestly are more likely to rise in early trading. Alternatively, Anthropic could delay the listing or raise money privately. What it cannot do indefinitely is both keep its spending commitments and stay out of the public markets.
Key takeaways
- Three major investors told The Wall Street Journal that Anthropic will probably need to cut its planned $1.5 trillion IPO valuation, with one suggesting closer to $1 trillion.
- Reuters separately reported that investors are questioning whether the roadshow can start next week and the November listing can stay on track.
- The pushback follows a $2.5 trillion one-day loss across Nasdaq companies and growing political resistance to data-centre construction after the US midterms.
- Anthropic's filing commits it to about $895 billion in computing spending — a figure Michael Burry called a bet on optimism — against a revenue run rate above $80 billion.
- Nothing is final: no official price range, valuation or listing date has been published, and Anthropic has not commented.
What happens next is a test of the whole AI trade. If the roadshow begins on schedule next week, the price funds are willing to sign for will show whether institutional investors — recently burned by the AI selloff — are prepared to buy into the sector's biggest name at anything close to $1.5 trillion. If it slips, or the valuation falls sharply, it will signal that the market's appetite for AI at any price has limits. Either way, the outcome will set the terms for every AI company hoping to follow Anthropic to market.
