Delhi's air has stayed in the "very poor" band for a fourth consecutive day, and forecasters warn it will slide into the "severe" category over the Diwali weekend, as the capital's annual winter smog crisis deepens — with no rain in sight to clear it.
The city's 24-hour average Air Quality Index (AQI) stood at 369 at 4 pm on Thursday, 5 November, according to Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) data. A day earlier it had reached 377 — the worst reading in nearly 10 months, and the worst in 287 days. On Thursday morning the overall AQI briefly spiked to 482, a level the CPCB classes as hazardous, before easing through the day.
Eighteen of the capital's 59 monitoring stations recorded "severe" air on Thursday, with Jahangirpuri the worst at 454. A day earlier, 22 stations had slipped into the severe band. The Air Quality Early Warning System expects Delhi to stay "very poor" through Thursday and deteriorate to "severe" from Friday to Sunday, with the six-day outlook at "severe to very poor".
The numbers: four days of very poor air
The deterioration has been swift. Just five days earlier, on 30 October, Delhi's AQI stood at 60 — in the "satisfactory" band. It rose to 117 on 31 October, then climbed day by day as winter conditions set in.
| Day | 24-hour average AQI | Category |
|---|---|---|
| Monday, 2 November | 324 | Very poor |
| Tuesday, 3 November | 350 | Very poor |
| Wednesday, 4 November | 377 | Very poor |
| Thursday, 5 November | 369 | Very poor |
Under the CPCB's scale, an AQI of 0–50 is "good", 51–100 "satisfactory", 101–200 "moderate", 201–300 "poor", 301–400 "very poor" and 401–500 "severe". At "severe" levels, air pollution can affect healthy people and seriously impact those with existing diseases.
The morning spike on Thursday was sharper still. At 8:01 am the overall AQI touched 482, according to CPCB data cited by the Financial Express, with seven stations above 400. Punjabi Bagh recorded 446, followed by Narela at 434, Rohini at 431, RK Puram at 416, Bawana at 412, North Campus at 408 and Patparganj at 405. Neighbouring areas including Noida, Greater Noida and Gurugram have also reported high pollution levels.
What is driving the smog
Delhi's winter pollution comes from several sources at once: vehicle emissions, industrial activity, construction dust, waste burning and crop-residue burning in neighbouring states. Weather then traps it all close to the ground — low wind speeds and temperature-related atmospheric conditions prevent pollutants from dispersing.
Stubble burning's share of Delhi's pollution was put at 20.2 per cent on Wednesday by the Decision Support System under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, with transport emissions accounting for 15.5 per cent. The Daily Pioneer, citing the same system, put stubble's contribution at 15.6 per cent on Thursday, rising to 19.2 per cent on Friday, while transport's share climbs from 17.9 per cent to 21.1 per cent over the same three days. Punjab has recorded 2,347 farm fires this season, more than 700 of them on 3 and 4 November alone.
But the mix is about to shift. Sunil Dahiya of EnviroCatalysts told The Daily Pioneer that the fall in the farm-fire share is a weather effect, not a drop in burning:
"As a western disturbance moves in, the north-westerly winds that carry smoke from Punjab and Haryana into Delhi are forecast to weaken and turn easterly around Diwali."
Slower winds and morning mist can then trap local emissions from vehicles, industry, waste burning and firecrackers, he warned — and the smoke can return once the north-westerly winds resume.
The India Meteorological Department has forecast shallow fog for 6 and 7 November, with temperatures between 16 and 28 degrees Celsius, and fog or mist in the early mornings from 8 to 10 November. There is no significant rainfall indicated in the forecast.
The health toll
The episode is a sharp reminder of a crisis that extends far beyond a few weeks of winter smog. Air pollution is claiming nearly four lives every minute in India — more than 5,500 deaths a day and over two million deaths in a year — according to the State of Global Air 2025 report cited by NDTV.
Fine particulate matter, PM2.5, is the main threat. Measuring 2.5 micrometres or less, these particles can travel deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream. Long-term exposure has been linked to heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and other serious health conditions. Children, older people and those with pre-existing illnesses are particularly vulnerable.
Monitoring company IQAir recorded PM2.5 concentrations above 461 micrograms per cubic metre in parts of the capital on 4 November, according to AFP — more than 30 times the World Health Organization's guideline for average exposure over 24 hours, which is 15 micrograms per cubic metre. Delhi recorded an annual average PM2.5 concentration of 99.6 micrograms per cubic metre in 2025, nearly 20 times the WHO's recommended annual guideline of 5. According to IQAir's World Air Quality Report 2025, India was the sixth most polluted country in the world, Delhi ranked fourth among the world's most polluted cities, and New Delhi was the most polluted capital.
A 2024 study published in The Lancet Planetary Health estimated that air pollution was linked to 3.8 million deaths across India between 2009 and 2019.
Context: This is not a one-off event. Delhi's air quality deteriorates almost every winter as temperatures fall, winds weaken and farm fires peak in Punjab and Haryana — and the city has repeatedly needed Supreme Court intervention to force coordination between the Centre and the governments of Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. Pollution does not respect administrative boundaries, and action in one state cannot fix a problem that spreads across the region.
What the authorities are doing
Delhi tightened its winter pollution controls three days before the spike. The plan, which took effect on 1 November, combines restrictions on vehicles and building work with a requirement for Delhi government and private offices to put 50 per cent of staff on work-from-home arrangements through 31 January.
The city is currently under Stage II of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP), which is invoked when air quality enters the "very poor" category. The Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM), the Centre's air quality panel, is continuously tracking meteorological conditions, including wind direction, wind speed and air movement, according to Union Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav.
Delhi Environment Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa has blamed Punjab's stubble burning, accusing Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann of misleading people about paddy harvesting and farm fires — a political blame game that has accompanied the smog's return, even as official data shows local emissions also carrying a large share of the load.
What the numbers do — and do not — mean: The "nearly four lives every minute" figure is a national estimate for India as a whole over a year, from the State of Global Air 2025 report — not a count of deaths in Delhi this week. The 482 reading on Thursday morning was a momentary spike, not the 24-hour average, which stood at 369. And the forecast of "severe" air for 6–7 November is a prediction, not a certainty: wind shifts around Diwali could change it either way.
Frequently asked questions
How bad is Delhi's air right now?
The 24-hour average AQI was 369 on 5 November — "very poor" for a fourth straight day — after hitting 377 on 4 November, the worst in 287 days. Several monitoring stations have recorded "severe" readings above 400, and the morning air briefly reached a hazardous 482.
What is causing it?
A combination of sources: stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana (roughly a fifth of Delhi's pollution this week), vehicle emissions (roughly a sixth to a fifth), plus construction dust, industry and waste burning — all trapped by calm winter air, low wind and morning fog.
Is it going to get worse?
The Air Quality Early Warning System expects "severe" air from Friday to Sunday, over the Diwali weekend. Diwali falls on 8 November, and firecrackers typically add a further load. No rain is forecast that would wash pollutants out of the air.
What should people in Delhi do?
Health guidance for "very poor" and "severe" air is consistent: limit outdoor exertion, keep windows closed during the worst hours, wear a well-fitting mask outdoors if you must go out, and seek medical advice early if you have asthma, heart disease or other respiratory conditions. Children, older people and those with pre-existing illnesses are most at risk.
What we know — and what we don't know yet
Confirmed: four consecutive days of "very poor" air, the worst readings in 287 days, the official forecast of "severe" air over the Diwali weekend, and the GRAP Stage II measures in force. Not yet known: whether the "severe" forecast materialises on 6–7 November, how much Diwali firecrackers will add, and whether the wind shift around Diwali traps local emissions or clears the smoke.
Key takeaways
- Delhi's AQI has stayed "very poor" for four straight days, peaking at 377 on 4 November — the worst reading in 287 days — with a morning spike to a hazardous 482 on 5 November.
- Forecasters expect the air to turn "severe" from Friday to Sunday, over the Diwali weekend, with no rain in sight.
- Stubble burning accounts for roughly a fifth of the pollution and transport for roughly a sixth to a fifth; calm winter air and fog are trapping it all close to the ground.
- Air pollution claims nearly four lives every minute across India, according to the State of Global Air 2025 report — a national toll, not a Delhi weekly count.
- Delhi's winter plan is in force, including a construction-dust ban and 50 per cent work-from-home through 31 January, under GRAP Stage II.
What to watch next
The next three days are the test. The early warning system's forecast of "severe" air for 6 and 7 November will be confirmed or revised by Friday's readings, and Diwali on 8 November will show how much firecrackers add to an already loaded atmosphere. Watch the CPCB's daily averages, the Air Quality Early Warning System's six-day outlook, and whether the forecast wind shift around Diwali traps local emissions — or finally clears the smoke.
