Rebeca Grynspan has strengthened her lead in the race to become the next secretary-general of the United Nations, winning 12 of the 15 Security Council votes in a closed-door straw poll on Thursday — her strongest showing in eight rounds of informal voting, according to diplomats and people close to the process.
The former Costa Rican vice president, who heads the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), received 12 "encourage" votes, three "discourage" votes and no "no opinion" ballots, Reuters reported, citing people close to the process. It was her best result since the council began polling in recent months to choose a successor to António Guterres, whose second five-year term ends on 31 December.
Grynspan has now led seven of the eight straw polls held so far. But the lead is not decisive: the council's five permanent members — the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain — can each block a candidate with a "discourage" vote in the formal selection, and Thursday's ballot was conducted with undifferentiated ballots, so it is not known whether any of her three negative votes came from a veto-wielding member.
The results in full
The National, citing diplomats, reported the full breakdown of Thursday's poll, the eighth since the process began:
| Candidate | Country / role | Encourage | Discourage | No opinion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebeca Grynspan | Costa Rica; head of UNCTAD | 12 | 3 | 0 |
| Rafael Grossi | Argentina; director general, IAEA | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett | Guyana; former foreign minister | 8 | 5 | 2 |
| Lana Nusseibeh | UAE; minister of state for foreign affairs | 7 | 6 | 2 |
| Olara Otunnu | Uganda; former UN under-secretary-general | — | — | — |
| Feridun Sinirlioğlu | Türkiye; secretary-general, OSCE | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| María Fernanda Espinosa | Ecuador; former UN General Assembly president | — | — | — |
| Ivonne A-Baki | Ecuador; former ambassador to the US | — | — | — |
Otunnu placed fifth, Espinosa seventh and A-Baki last, according to reports of the poll; their exact tallies were not disclosed. The results were not officially published by the council — Latvia's ambassador to the UN, Sanita Pavļuta-Deslandes, who holds the council's rotating presidency this month, confirmed the ballot had taken place but declined to disclose the results, and the figures reached the press through diplomats.
Why the lead may not be enough
To win the council's recommendation, a candidate needs at least nine "encourage" votes and no "discourage" vote from any permanent member. Grynspan clears the nine-vote bar comfortably. The question is the three negatives: if any one of them came from a permanent member, her path to the job is blocked unless that opposition softens.
That uncertainty is why diplomats are watching the format of the next ballot. Thursday's vote used undifferentiated ballots, which reveal nothing about how the permanent members voted. Diplomats may return to colour-coded ballots in the next round — a step that would show whether the opposition to the leading candidates is coming from permanent or elected members, The National reported.
Grynspan's three negative votes leave uncertainty over whether she can secure the backing of all five veto-wielding powers.
Grynspan improved on her previous round, when she won 11 votes in favour and four against, according to Reuters. Her trajectory — leading seven of eight polls and steadily trimming her negatives — makes her the clear frontrunner. But the history of secretary-general selections is full of frontrunners who stalled at the veto stage, and the council has less than two months to reach agreement before Guterres leaves office.
The late entrant's rough debut
The poll was also the first test for the race's newest candidate, Feridun Sinirlioğlu of Türkiye, and it was a poor one. The former Turkish foreign minister and current secretary-general of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) won just three "encourage" votes against eight "discourage" and four "no opinion" — sixth of eight, with more votes against him than in his favour.
Sinirlioğlu was nominated by Ankara on 1 November, after the United Arab Emirates put forward its own candidate, Lana Nusseibeh — a move that complicated an already crowded contest. None of the five permanent members reportedly backed him, according to reports of the poll.
He is scheduled to address the General Assembly on Friday before holding informal talks with Security Council members on 9 November — his first chance to make his case in person and to try to recover from the weak first showing.
Context: The secretary-general is chosen by the 15-member Security Council, which recommends a single candidate to the 193-member General Assembly, which then appoints the winner — historically by acclamation. The new secretary-general, the tenth in the UN's history, takes office on 1 January 2027. The council is selecting Guterres's successor at a moment when the UN faces mounting financial pressures, active conflicts and open questions about its ability to respond to global crises.
Russia signals the rotation debate is open
Moscow added a new wrinkle to the race this week. Kirill Logvinov, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Department for International Organisations, told state news agency Tass that Russia could consider candidates from outside Latin America and the Caribbean if none of the region's nominees wins enough support in the informal votes.
Logvinov said Moscow still believes it is the turn of Latin America and the Caribbean to nominate candidates, under the informal principle of geographical rotation, and that Russia had promised at the early stages of the race to respect that tradition. But if no regional candidate won enough support, Russia would consider a wider field "that would meet our criteria and could command as much support from UN Security Council members as possible", he said. He added that tension was rising and consultations among the five permanent members were becoming more frequent.
The remark matters because the rotation question has shaped the race from the start: five of the eight candidates are from Latin America and the Caribbean, and the region has never held the secretary-general's post. A widening of the field would change the contest entirely — and could produce a late "dark horse" entry, as has happened in past selections.
What happens next
The council, under Latvia's November presidency, is expected to hold further straw polls in the coming weeks, with the aim of adopting a formal resolution recommending a single candidate to the General Assembly. The Security Council had aimed to complete the recommendation in October; the timetable has now slipped into November or December, leaving a short transition before the new secretary-general takes office on 1 January.
Sinirlioğlu's address to the General Assembly on Friday and his informal talks with council members on Monday are the next scheduled milestones. After that, the decisive question is whether the council moves to colour-coded ballots — the step that would finally reveal whether Grynspan's three negative votes include a veto, or whether her path to the top job is clear.
What is not yet known: The straw poll results were not officially published — they were confirmed to reporters by diplomats, and the council president declined to disclose them. The figures above are the reported tallies. It is also not known how any individual council member voted, because Thursday's ballot was undifferentiated. Any claim about which country opposed which candidate would be speculation at this stage.
Frequently asked questions
How is the UN secretary-general chosen?
The 15-member Security Council holds informal straw polls, then recommends a single candidate to the 193-member General Assembly, which appoints the secretary-general — historically by acclamation. A candidate needs at least nine "encourage" votes in the council and no "discourage" vote from any of the five permanent members.
Who is leading the race?
Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, the head of UNCTAD and a former vice president of Costa Rica. She won 12 of 15 votes in the eighth straw poll on 5 November — her strongest result yet — and has led seven of the eight polls held so far.
Why hasn't the frontrunner already won?
Because the poll is informal and the ballots were undifferentiated, it is not known whether any of her three "discourage" votes came from a permanent member. Any permanent member can block a candidate in the formal vote, so the frontrunner still needs to clear the veto hurdle.
When will the next secretary-general be chosen?
The council is working to a deadline of 31 December, when António Guterres's second five-year term ends. The successor takes office on 1 January 2027. The council had aimed to recommend a candidate in October, but the process has slipped into November or December.
Who are the other candidates?
Seven others: Rafael Grossi of Argentina (IAEA chief), Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana, Lana Nusseibeh of the UAE, Olara Otunnu of Uganda, Feridun Sinirlioğlu of Türkiye, and María Fernanda Espinosa and Ivonne A-Baki of Ecuador.
Key takeaways
- Rebeca Grynspan won 12 of 15 votes in the Security Council's eighth straw poll — her strongest showing yet and her seventh lead in eight rounds.
- Rafael Grossi is second with nine "encourage" votes; Türkiye's late entrant Feridun Sinirlioğlu finished sixth with just three votes in favour and eight against.
- The result is not decisive: Thursday's ballot was undifferentiated, so it is unknown whether any of Grynspan's three negative votes came from a veto-wielding permanent member.
- Russia has signalled it could look beyond Latin America and the Caribbean if no regional candidate wins enough support — opening the door to a wider field.
- Sinirlioğlu addresses the General Assembly on Friday and meets council members informally on 9 November; the council must agree a single recommendation before Guterres's term ends on 31 December.
The race for the UN's top job is now in its final stretch, and the frontrunner's lead is real but fragile. Grynspan has the votes of most of the council — what she does not yet have, on the public record, is proof that none of the five permanent members stands in her way. The next ballot, and whether it uses colour-coded votes, will answer that question.
