New Zealand's political leaders have made their final appeals to voters ahead of a general election on Saturday that every major poll shows is too close to call, with the centre-right National Party and the opposition Labour Party separated by less than a percentage point and neither bloc able to govern alone.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's National-led coalition is fighting to avoid becoming what Reuters reports Labour hopes to make it: the first one-term government in New Zealand in nearly 50 years. Voting closes at 7pm local time on Saturday (11am PKT), after a campaign dominated by the economy and the cost of living — and with the small centrist Opportunity Party positioned to decide who governs next.
"It is going to be close. It will be tight, and that's why you've got to get out and make sure you do vote," Luxon told supporters and media on Friday, adding that "the only poll that matters is tomorrow night."
The final polls: a dead heat
No final survey gives either side a lead outside the margin of error. The last polls of the campaign tell the same story from different angles:
| Poll (published) | National | Labour | Greens | ACT | NZ First | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1News Verian, 3 Nov | 30% | 29% | 16% | 10% | 8% | 6% |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia, 4 Nov | 28.9% | 28.4% | 14.4% | 10.5% | — | — |
| Infrastructure NZ, 6 Nov | 26.4% | 30.7% | — | — | — | 5.1% |
The Taxpayers' Union–Curia poll, conducted between 28 October and 3 November, put the two main parties just half a percentage point apart and projected the centre-left and centre-right blocs tied on 60 seats each — a hung parliament. The 1News Verian final poll, conducted between 29 October and 2 November among 1,006 eligible voters, had National on 30% and Labour on 29%, with a maximum margin of error of about 3.1 points.
On preferred prime minister, Luxon still leads, but the gap has narrowed: he is down one point to 23%, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins is up one to 19%, according to 1News Verian.
"We're banking on being the biggest party in Parliament. I'm feeling increasingly confident of that," Hipkins told a press conference on Friday — while conceding it was too early to discuss possible coalitions.
Coalition maths: Opportunity holds the keys
New Zealand's mixed-member proportional system makes coalitions the norm, and this year's race is so tight that one or more smaller parties will almost certainly take part in the next government. Under the system, a party's share of the party vote largely decides how many seats it gets in Parliament, which normally has 120 seats and needs 61 for a majority.
On the 1News Verian numbers, neither bloc gets there. The governing right bloc — National, ACT and New Zealand First — would hold 58 seats, down from 61 a week earlier. The left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would hold 56 or 60 seats, depending on how the Māori seats are calculated. That leaves only one party left to negotiate with: Opportunity, whose 6% support would bring it seven MPs — and both blocs would need its backing to form a government.
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong has said her party would speak first to whichever party wins the most seats, and that it may wait for the special votes to be counted if the result is very close. "More support would give it more leverage around the table and more ability to bring stability to the next term of government," she told 1News.
Why the seat count can move: if a party wins more electorate seats than its party vote entitles it to, it keeps the extra seats and Parliament grows — an "overhang". If Te Pāti Māori holds four seats, Parliament would grow to 125 MPs and 63 would be needed to govern; on the Verian numbers the left bloc plus Opportunity would reach 67, while the right bloc would be five short. National won 44 electorates in 2023, so an overhang on the right is also possible — and the tactic of splitting votes between parties has been a live argument inside the coalition during the campaign.
The economy dominated the campaign
The campaign was fought overwhelmingly on living standards. An Ipsos survey published this week found inflation and the cost of living remained voters' biggest concern, according to Reuters. New Zealand has emerged only slowly from a prolonged economic downturn, with growth subdued, household budgets strained and unemployment rising to 5.7% in the third quarter — its highest level in 11 years.
There are signs of improving sentiment: in the 1News Verian poll, nearly half of voters (49%) now expect the economy to improve over the next 12 months, up three points and at the highest level since 2020, while pessimism held at 22%. Luxon has urged voters to "stick with the plan" and give National another three years to "complete the job". Hipkins, who briefly served as prime minister before losing to Luxon in 2023, has argued that most New Zealanders want a change of government and that the best way to ensure it is to make Labour the biggest party.
How Saturday will unfold
Advance voting has been open since 26 October, and turnout is running well ahead of 2023. Electoral Commission data cited by Reuters shows nearly 1.67 million people had voted by Thursday — more than a third of those eligible — compared with about 1.25 million at the same point in the last election cycle, when 1,007,928 had voted by the Tuesday before polling day in 2023.
From midnight on Friday, campaigning and advertising are banned until voting closes at 7pm on Saturday, with election signs removed and media prohibited from publishing anything that could influence votes. Results are expected to start coming through on Saturday evening, but commentators expect it could take weeks for a government to form as parties wait for results to be finalised and coalition terms are agreed.
What the polls cannot tell us: polls are snapshots, not predictions. The final surveys each carry a margin of error of about 3.1 points — larger than the gap between National and Labour — and the shape of Parliament will depend on electorate results, overhangs and the special votes counted after election night. No result should be treated as settled until the Electoral Commission's official count is complete.
Frequently asked questions
When do New Zealanders vote?
Polling day is Saturday 7 November. Advance voting has been open since 26 October, and polls close at 7pm local time (11am PKT). Results are expected to begin arriving on Saturday evening.
Who are the main contenders?
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's centre-right National Party, governing with ACT and New Zealand First, faces Chris Hipkins' Labour Party, which would look to the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and the Opportunity Party for support. Luxon leads Hipkins as preferred prime minister, 23% to 19% in the final 1News Verian poll.
What is the Opportunity Party?
A centrist party polling just above the 5% threshold for representation in Parliament. On the final polls it would win about seven seats — enough that neither the left nor the right bloc could govern without it. Its leader, Qiulae Wong, says it would talk first to the party with the most seats.
Why might it take weeks to form a government?
Under New Zealand's proportional system, neither bloc is projected to win a majority outright, so coalition negotiations will follow the vote. Special votes are counted after election night, and the final seat allocation — including any overhang seats — can shift the balance.
What would a change of government mean?
If Labour leads the next government, it would end National's term after a single three-year term — something Reuters notes would make the Luxon coalition the first one-term government in nearly 50 years. Either way, the economy and the cost of living will dominate the new government's first months.
Key takeaways
- New Zealand votes on Saturday 7 November, with the final polls showing National and Labour separated by less than a point.
- Neither bloc is projected to reach a majority: the right bloc would hold 58 seats and the left 56–60 on the final 1News Verian poll.
- The centrist Opportunity Party, on about 6%, would hold the balance of power with around seven MPs.
- The campaign was dominated by the economy and the cost of living, with unemployment at 5.7% — its highest in 11 years.
- Advance voting is running well ahead of 2023, with nearly 1.67 million votes cast by Thursday.
- Results begin on Saturday evening, but forming a government could take weeks.
What to watch next: the first results on Saturday evening will show whether either major party has broken clear of the other, but the decisive numbers — the special votes, the Māori seats and any overhang — will take days to settle. The first real test comes when the largest party opens talks with Opportunity, and whether either bloc can assemble 61 seats without it.
