President Donald Trump says he will soon decide whether to resume the war with Iran or pursue a deal with Tehran, after meeting his national security advisers for the first time since the midterm elections. The choice, he told reporters, is between fresh strikes, continued economic pressure, or a negotiated agreement — and Qatar is mediating a two-day plan that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks.
Trump met his advisers on Thursday, 5 November, at the White House. No order to resume military operations was issued, according to Fox News, but officials were considering the next steps while US Central Command finalised preparations for a potential operation.
“Now we will make a decision,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “Do we want to go further? I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible, but maybe I will have to. You’ll know soon enough.”
A day later, speaking to reporters outside the White House, he struck a more upbeat note on diplomacy, saying the United States was “talking to Iran” and “doing very well” with Tehran. The two statements, a day apart, capture the position Washington is in: weighing war and talks at the same time, with neither path yet chosen.
Three options on the table
According to Axios, citing US officials, Trump is weighing three paths. He could order fresh strikes against Iran, keep squeezing Tehran with economic pressure, or make a deal that gives Iran major concessions. The meeting on Thursday was part of his weekly intelligence briefing, Axios reported, and was his first such session with advisers since the election.
The military option has a reported calendar dimension. Fox News, citing officials, reported that a new moon appears in the Middle East on 9 November, bringing low moonlight that is favourable for military operations. That is a report about conditions, not a decision: no final decision or military order has been announced, and Trump himself said on Thursday that he had yet to decide on attacking Iran.
The context has changed since the midterm elections on 3 November, in which Republicans lost ground. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have both attributed part of the defeat to the unpopularity of the Iran war and its fallout, including higher fuel prices. Vance said in a lengthy post on X that Republican voters had backed Democrats out of frustration over the conflict, the cost of living and US support for Israel.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has faced scrutiny since the midterms, defended the war on Thursday as a “courageous and historic effort” to keep Iran from gaining nuclear arms, and appealed to Congress to pass a $1.5 trillion funding request to help pay for the Iran war and other priorities. Trump said Hegseth had “done a fantastic job”, though sources have told reporters the defence secretary could still be replaced as Republicans assess their election losses.
The Qatari mediation track
While the military option is being weighed, diplomacy has continued at pace. Qatari mediators have been shuttling between Tehran and Washington, and on Monday travelled to Tehran to discuss a draft agreement that had been under discussion for more than a week. It was their third visit to Tehran in a week, according to Reuters.
The draft under discussion is a two-day confidence-building framework, according to Axios. Under the proposal:
| Step | What happens |
|---|---|
| Day one | The United States lifts its naval blockade and releases some of Iran’s frozen assets; Iran formally invites inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to visit nuclear sites damaged in the war. |
| Day two | Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz; nuclear talks resume, focused on Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. |
Both sides are reviewing proposals, Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari said, and discussions are continuing. The New York Times, citing five officials including two from Iran and one from the United States, reported that Tehran was reviewing “concrete proposals” presented by Qatari-led mediators on its nuclear programme. Bloomberg, citing a diplomat briefed on the talks, reported that the two countries had moved closer to a breakthrough, with Tehran showing a willingness to discuss nuclear proposals it had previously refused to put on the table.
Iran has also sent its own nuclear proposal to the United States through Qatar, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. But the official said Washington was reviewing the proposal and that it would be discussed only once the United States meets Tehran’s seven demands.
On Friday, Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, held a phone call with Trump in which they discussed diplomatic efforts to ease regional tensions, a Qatari statement said. The emir stressed the need to avoid further escalation, ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and secure energy supplies. Qatar’s prime minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, urged both sides to accept a practical agreement rather than pursue a “perfect” deal.
Iran’s seven conditions
Tehran’s demands, presented in August, are the central obstacle. They are:
- Compensation for war damages
- Unfreezing Iranian assets held abroad
- Lifting US sanctions
- Ending the US naval blockade on Iran
- Withdrawing US troops from the region
- Permanently ending the war with Iran and its allies
- A commitment not to threaten Iran again
“As long as they do not execute our seven conditions, we will neither open the Strait of Hormuz nor have negotiations,” Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said during a visit to Russia on Thursday. Washington, for its part, has said nuclear issues must be part of any initial negotiations — a sequencing dispute that sits at the heart of the standoff.
Rezaei met Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin on Thursday, delivering a message from Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, and saying the Russian leader was ready to help end the war. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has also held a flurry of phone calls with counterparts in the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt and Oman, pressing the diplomatic track.
Why this matters now: the war, launched by the United States and Israel on 28 February, has lasted eight months. Iran responded with strikes on Israel and Arab states and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, choking off about a fifth of the world’s oil shipments and pushing up energy prices. A shaky truce in April was followed by a US blockade on Iranian ports. The strait remains the hinge of the conflict: whoever controls it shapes global oil prices, and both sides are now using it as a bargaining chip.
What is not yet known
What remains unverified: no decision has been announced, and the details of the proposals under review have not been made public. Neither side has indicated it has accepted any proposal. Reports that a strike could come as soon as 9 November rest on a Fox News report about moonlight conditions, not on any announced plan. Claims of a breakthrough rest on a single diplomat briefed on the talks, cited by Bloomberg, and should be treated as tentative.
Frequently asked questions
What do we know?
Trump met his national security advisers on 5 November and said a decision is coming soon. Three options are on the table: strikes, economic pressure, or a deal. Qatar is mediating a two-day framework involving a blockade lift, frozen-asset releases, IAEA access and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has sent its own proposal via Qatar, conditioned on seven demands.
What don’t we know yet?
Whether Trump will choose strikes, pressure or a deal — and when. The substance of the proposals under review has not been made public, and neither side has accepted anything. It is also unclear whether Iran will discuss its nuclear programme before its seven conditions are met, or whether the United States will accept that sequencing.
Why is 9 November being mentioned?
Fox News, citing officials, reported that a new moon on 9 November means low moonlight, which is favourable for military operations. That is a report about conditions, not evidence of a planned strike date.
What happens if talks fail?
Both sides have continued to threaten military action if negotiations fail. Iran has warned it would expand its retaliation if the war resumes, and the United States has kept its military preparations in place.
What to watch next
The decision itself is the next event: Trump has said it will be clear “soon enough”. Watch for any announcement from the White House, for the next round of Qatari shuttle diplomacy, and for whether IAEA inspectors are invited to Iran’s damaged nuclear sites — the first concrete step in the two-day plan. The 9 November date will also be watched closely, given the Fox News report on conditions. If the strait reopens, oil markets — already volatile after a week in which Brent crude fell more than 13% — will be the first to react.
Key takeaways
- Trump says he will soon decide between resuming war with Iran, continuing economic pressure, or pursuing a deal — after his first national security meeting since the midterms.
- Qatar is mediating a two-day framework: the US lifts its naval blockade and frees some frozen assets, Iran admits IAEA inspectors, then the Strait of Hormuz reopens and nuclear talks resume.
- Iran has sent its own nuclear proposal via Qatar but says talks depend on seven conditions, including sanctions relief, unfrozen assets and war compensation.
- No decision has been announced and neither side has accepted any proposal; reports of a 9 November strike window rest on a Fox News report about moonlight, not an official plan.
- The midterm elections changed the politics: Trump and Vance have linked Republican losses to the war’s unpopularity, opening space for diplomacy even as military preparations continue.
