Ten years ago, the Paris Agreement entered into force, binding nearly every country on Earth to a shared goal: hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5C. A decade on, the deal has reshaped climate policy and driven a rapid expansion of clean energy — but emissions remain near record highs, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is still far from the cuts needed to keep 1.5C within reach.
The anniversary, marked on November 4, 2026, arrives with a mixed verdict. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) said in October that the chance of keeping warming to 1.5C without overshooting it has been lost. At the same time, the outlook is markedly less bleak than when the deal was signed — a reminder that the agreement has changed the trajectory, even if it has not yet bent it far enough.
What the agreement promised
The Paris Agreement is a legally binding climate treaty adopted by 196 parties at the United Nations climate summit in Paris, COP21, on December 12, 2015. It entered into force on November 4, 2016. Rather than imposing the same cuts on everyone, it asks each government to set its own targets — nationally determined contributions, or NDCs — and to submit a new, more ambitious one every five years. A Global Stocktake assesses collective progress on the same cycle.
The agreement does not force countries to meet their targets; it relies on transparency and international pressure to raise ambition. Today, 194 parties — 193 countries and the European Union — belong to it. The United States, the world's second-largest emitter after China, has joined and left twice: President Donald Trump ordered both withdrawals, the first taking effect in November 2020, before President Joe Biden rejoined in February 2021. The US left again in January this year.
The temperature scoreboard
In 2024, the planet was more than 1.5C warmer than pre-industrial levels across a full calendar year for the first time. The past three years, 2023 to 2025, were the hottest on record — and the first three-year period to average more than 1.5C of warming. The long-term average now stands at about 1.4C, and scientists expect it to surpass 1.5C around the end of this decade.
Global emissions are 9 percent higher than in 2016, the year the agreement took effect. China, the US and India now produce more than half of the world's annual emissions. China alone emits more than the US, India, Russia and Japan combined, although the US has released the most carbon emissions historically. Germany, Japan and the US have cut their emissions, largely by replacing coal with renewables and gas — but growth elsewhere has outweighed those cuts, and progress has stalled since 2021.
| Measure | 2015–2016 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Projected warming by 2100 under then-current policies | About 3.6C | About 2.6C |
| Global emissions vs 2016 | — | 9% higher |
| First full calendar year above 1.5C | None yet | 2024 |
| Clean-energy investment vs fossil fuels | Lower than fossil fuels | Almost double fossil fuels |
| Climate finance for developing countries (2024) | $100bn annual goal, unmet | $136.7bn — goal exceeded for a third straight year |
The good news, in context: when the Paris Agreement was signed, existing policies put the world on course for about 3.6C of warming by 2100. According to the Climate Action Tracker, that projection has since fallen to about 2.6C as countries adopted climate policies and clean energy expanded. The deal has not solved the problem — but it has measurably improved the worst case.
Where the progress came from
The clearest success is clean energy. Investments in clean energy are now almost double those in fossil fuels, and the expansion of wind and solar has been the main force pulling the 2100 warming projection down. In September 2025, China announced its 2035 NDC targets, including reducing economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 percent from peak levels and increasing installed wind and solar capacity to more than six times the 2020 level, aiming for 3,600 gigawatts.
The agreement's machinery has also kept working. The first Global Stocktake, concluded at COP28, called for accelerating renewable energy deployment, improving energy efficiency and transitioning away from fossil fuels. A UNFCCC synthesis report released on October 27, 2026, examined 127 new NDCs submitted by 154 parties between January 2024 and August 2026, covering about 71 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019.
The two gaps
Yet the same reports expose how far the world still is from the goal. The new NDCs are projected to reduce global emissions by only around 6 percent by 2035 from 2019 levels — rising to around 9 percent if all conditional elements are fully implemented, according to the UNFCCC synthesis. UNEP's 2026 Emissions Gap Report, released on October 13, warns that even full implementation of current NDCs would leave the world on track for 2.6 degrees of warming this century.
Researchers describe two distinct gaps: the ambition gap, in which the NDCs countries have pledged are not enough to meet the Paris targets, and the implementation gap, in which actual emission cuts lag even behind what countries have pledged. Closing either would be hard; closing both at once is the task facing the next round of climate talks.
"Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5C increases climate impacts and risks, such as the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have plagued many nations this year." — Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme
What is not yet settled: passing 1.5C in individual years, as happened in 2024, is not the same as permanently breaching the Paris limit, which is judged on long-term averages. Scientists expect the long-term average to cross 1.5C around the end of this decade — but the exact timing depends on emissions in the next few years, and on how quickly clean energy displaces coal, oil and gas.
The money question
Adaptation and climate finance remain pressing challenges: developing countries need greater support to strengthen resilience against climate risks, and funding remains unevenly distributed, with adaptation finance still insufficient. There has been movement — according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, developed countries provided and mobilised $136.7 billion in climate finance for developing countries in 2024, exceeding the $100 billion annual goal for the third consecutive year.
What happens next
The next major test comes at COP31, scheduled for November 9–20, 2026, in Antalya, Türkiye. Delegates will arrive with the tenth-anniversary assessments in hand — and with the knowledge that the 1.5C goal, the agreement's most ambitious promise, is slipping out of reach on current policies. A decade after the agreement took effect, translating national pledges into deeper emissions cuts, stronger climate resilience and accessible financial support remains essential to keeping its temperature goals within reach.
Frequently asked questions
Has the world already breached the 1.5C limit?
Not in the sense the Paris Agreement uses. The limit is judged on long-term average warming, which stands at about 1.4C. But 2024 was the first full calendar year more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, and 2023–2025 averaged above 1.5C. Scientists expect the long-term average to pass 1.5C around the end of this decade.
What is an NDC?
A nationally determined contribution is each country's own climate plan under the Paris Agreement — its targets for cutting emissions and adapting to climate change. Countries submit a new, more ambitious NDC every five years. The agreement does not force countries to meet their targets; it relies on transparency and international pressure.
Why has the warming outlook improved if emissions are still rising?
Because the outlook measures where current policies lead by 2100, not today's emissions. In 2015, existing policies pointed to about 3.6C of warming by 2100; that projection has fallen to about 2.6C as countries adopted climate policies and clean energy expanded. Emissions are still rising, but clean-energy investment now nearly doubles fossil-fuel investment.
Key takeaways
- Ten years after it took effect, the Paris Agreement has driven stronger climate policies and a clean-energy boom — but emissions are 9% higher than in 2016 and near record highs.
- UNEP says the chance of holding warming to 1.5C without overshooting it has been lost; the long-term average, now about 1.4C, is expected to pass 1.5C around the end of this decade.
- The worst-case outlook has improved: policies in place in 2015 pointed to 3.6C by 2100; current policies point to about 2.6C, according to the Climate Action Tracker.
- New national climate plans would cut global emissions only about 6% by 2035 from 2019 levels — far short of what the 1.5C goal requires.
- Climate finance reached $136.7bn in 2024, beating the $100bn goal for a third straight year, but adaptation funding remains insufficient.
- All eyes now turn to COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, on November 9–20, 2026.
What to watch next: COP31 in Antalya from November 9, where governments respond to the tenth-anniversary assessments; any new or strengthened NDCs announced there; and UNEP's next Emissions Gap Report, which will show whether the 2.6C trajectory is finally starting to fall.
