Nearly 90 million forcibly displaced people are living in countries highly exposed to climate-related droughts, floods and extreme heat, the UN refugee agency warned on Friday, in a report released days before the COP31 climate summit opens in Antalya, Turkey.
Three in four of the world's forcibly displaced people now live in countries the agency classes as highly exposed to climate hazards, according to the report by UNHCR, the UN refugee agency. Afghanistan and Bangladesh are among the countries named as most severely exposed.
"Refugees face a double injustice," Anton Leis Garcia, UNHCR's assistant high commissioner for operations, said in a statement. "Forced to flee conflicts they did not cause, they are now on the frontlines of a climate crisis they have contributed least to."
The findings land as governments prepare to gather at COP31, where UNHCR will press for more adaptation funding to reach fragile states — and for displaced people to be included in national climate plans and financing mechanisms.
A double injustice
The report describes an overlap that has become the shape of displacement itself: people forced from their homes by war, violence and persecution are ending up in places where the climate itself has turned hostile. They face severe droughts, deadly floods and extreme heat, often with little access to cooling, clean water or reliable energy.
"For millions, climate change is not a distant threat. It is destroying shelters, undermining livelihoods and putting their hopes of rebuilding their lives at risk," Garcia said.
The report illustrates the point through the experience of a Sudanese refugee who fled fighting in al-Fashir in June 2023 for the Farchana settlement in eastern Chad. According to UNHCR, she sometimes goes a week without finding safe water and must walk increasingly long distances for alternative sources as nearby seasonal riverbeds dry up amid intensifying heat.
Why it matters now: COP31 opens on Monday in Antalya, Turkey. UNHCR is using the report to argue that adaptation money must reach the communities where needs are greatest — and that the people least responsible for warming are the ones living closest to its consequences.
Returns are at risk too
Climate change is also making it harder for displaced people to return home and stay there, the agency warned. In the first half of 2026, more than two-thirds of refugees who returned home went back to countries highly exposed to climate hazards, placing them at risk of renewed displacement.
Syria is the starkest example. Nearly four million displaced people have recently returned there, according to UNHCR, but they face worsening water scarcity and erratic rainfall. Flooding along the Euphrates River in May damaged homes and displaced thousands of people once again.
Extreme heat is a growing threat as well. By 2050, one in three refugee settlements across sub-Saharan Africa could face 100 or more days of dangerous heat each year, the report said. In some settlements in Ethiopia, including Helaweyn, dangerous heat could persist for more than 200 days a year, raising the risks of heatstroke and premature death.
"Climate adaptation in fragile and displacement-affected areas is a matter of survival. We need climate financing to reach the communities where the needs are greatest." — Anton Leis Garcia, UNHCR assistant high commissioner for operations
The numbers behind the warning
| Finding | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Displaced people in climate-exposed countries | Nearly 90 million — about three in four of all forcibly displaced people | UNHCR report, 6 November 2026 |
| Refugee returns to climate-exposed countries (first half of 2026) | More than two-thirds | UNHCR report |
| Refugee settlements in sub-Saharan Africa facing 100+ dangerous-heat days a year by 2050 | One in three | UNHCR report |
| Internal displacements caused by weather-related disasters over the past decade | More than 255 million — about 70,000 a day | UNHCR |
| People who could be displaced by El Niño-linked flooding in East Africa by end of 2026 | Up to 3 million | UNHCR forecast |
| Share of global climate finance reaching fragile and conflict-affected countries | About 10% | UNHCR |
El Niño could make it worse
UNHCR also warned that a forecast supersized El Niño could worsen climate-related risks in many refugee-hosting countries and trigger further displacement.
In East Africa, forecasts indicate that severe flooding linked to the weather phenomenon could displace up to three million people across Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda by the end of 2026. In the Sahel, drought, flooding and conflict could intensify competition over scarce resources, while parts of Asia face heightened risks of droughts, floods and cyclones.
Weather-related disasters are already a major driver of movement. Over the past decade, they have caused more than 255 million internal displacements worldwide — about 70,000 each day, according to UNHCR.
What is not yet known: the report measures exposure country by country. It does not break down how many of the 90 million people are exposed at the level of the individual settlement where they actually live — a gap that matters, because national averages can hide very different conditions on the ground.
The funding gap
Only about 10 per cent of global climate finance reaches fragile and conflict-affected countries hosting large populations of climate-exposed displaced people, UNHCR said — a figure the agency wants COP31 negotiators to confront.
A separate UN report published on Wednesday found that rich countries were falling well short of the $305 billion needed each year to help developing nations adapt to climate change, even as extreme weather events become more frequent and severe.
"We cannot allow those who have already lost so much to be left behind in global climate action," Garcia said.
Frequently asked questions
Who counts as forcibly displaced?
People forced to flee their homes by conflict, violence or persecution — including refugees who cross borders and people displaced within their own countries.
Why are displaced people especially exposed to climate hazards?
They often settle in countries and regions already facing severe drought, flooding or extreme heat, and they typically have limited access to cooling, safe water, reliable energy and sturdy shelter — the very things that protect people from climate extremes.
What does UNHCR want COP31 to do?
The agency is calling on governments and climate-finance institutions to increase adaptation funding for fragile states, and to include refugees and other displaced populations in national climate plans and financing mechanisms.
How big is the adaptation funding shortfall?
A separate UN report this week found rich countries are falling well short of the $305 billion a year needed to help developing nations adapt. Only about 10 per cent of global climate finance currently reaches fragile and conflict-affected countries.
What happens next?
COP31 opens on Monday in Antalya, Turkey. UNHCR will push its case there, and the summit's decisions on adaptation finance will show whether the warnings in this report translate into money reaching the communities most at risk.
Key takeaways
- Nearly 90 million forcibly displaced people — three in four of the global total — live in countries highly exposed to drought, floods and extreme heat, according to a new UNHCR report.
- Climate change is undermining returns: more than two-thirds of refugees who went home in the first half of 2026 returned to climate-exposed countries.
- By 2050, one in three refugee settlements in sub-Saharan Africa could face 100 or more days of dangerous heat a year.
- A forecast supersized El Niño could displace up to three million more people in East Africa by the end of 2026.
- Only about 10 per cent of global climate finance reaches fragile and conflict-affected countries — the gap UNHCR wants COP31 to close.
What to watch next: COP31 opens on Monday in Antalya, where adaptation finance will be a central test of the summit. Watch for whether negotiators commit new money for fragile states — and whether displaced populations are written into national climate plans, as UNHCR is demanding.
